India’s southern and coastal regions are bracing for intense weather conditions as the India Meteorological Department (IMD) warned that a well-marked low-pressure area over Malaysia and the adjoining Strait of Malacca is likely to intensify into a cyclonic storm within the next 48 hours. If it reaches cyclonic strength, the storm will be officially named Cyclone ‘Senyar’, the next name on the North Indian Ocean cyclone list, contributed by the United Arab Emirates.
The developing weather system, currently travelling west-northwestwards, is showing strong signs of intensifying. According to IMD’s early-morning satellite observations, the disturbance is expected to strengthen into a depression over the south Andaman Sea within 24 hours, before moving further into the south Bay of Bengal and potentially evolving into a cyclonic storm.
IMD Observations: Increasing Intensity Over the Andaman Sea
IMD satellite imagery on Monday morning highlighted intense to very intense convective clouds spanning across the south Andaman Sea, the Strait of Malacca, and nearby regions. Meteorologists noted:
- Wind speeds: 15–20 knots (28–37 kmph), gusting up to 30 knots
- Sea conditions: Moderate, but likely to worsen as the system intensifies
- Movement: Steady west-northwestward trajectory toward the Bay of Bengal
Forecasters caution that once the low-pressure system reaches the open waters of the Bay of Bengal, conditions such as warm sea surface temperatures and low vertical wind shear may accelerate its development.
Cyclone Senyar: Meaning and Nomenclature
The potential cyclone will be named ‘Senyar’, meaning “lion”, as per the official naming list maintained by IMD in coordination with World Meteorological Organization (WMO) member nations. The UAE proposed the name.
IMD follows these norms for formal cyclone naming:
- A weather system is named only when it becomes a cyclonic storm,
- That requires sustained wind speeds of 62 kmph or more,
- A deep depression does not get a name.
Thus, ‘Cyclone Senyar’ will be declared only after the system intensifies beyond deep depression stage.
Rainfall Alerts Across Southern India
The approaching system is expected to trigger widespread and intense rainfall across multiple southern states and island territories.
🔹 Tamil Nadu (Nov 24–30)
- Very heavy rainfall: Nov 24, and again from Nov 28–30
- Heavy rainfall: Nov 25–27
- Thunderstorms with lightning: Nov 24–28
Chennai, Chengalpattu, Tiruvallur, Kanyakumari, Ramanathapuram, Nagapattinam, Cuddalore, and delta districts may experience flooding in low-lying areas.
🔹 Kerala & Mahe (Nov 24–26)
- Heavy rainfall: Nov 24–26
- Thunderstorms: Expected throughout the same period
IMD warns coastal districts such as Thiruvananthapuram, Kollam, Alappuzha, and Kozhikode to remain on alert for possible landslides in hilly regions.
🔹 Lakshadweep (Nov 24)
- Heavy showers
- Sea conditions expected to deteriorate; fishermen advised not to venture into the southeast Arabian Sea.
🔹 Andaman & Nicobar Islands (Nov 25–29)
- Heavy rainfall: Nov 25 & Nov 29
- Very heavy rainfall: Nov 26–28
- Thunderstorms with 40–50 kmph winds: Throughout the next six days
Strong winds could disrupt ferry services and inter-island transport.
🔹 Coastal Andhra Pradesh & Yanam (Nov 27–30)
- Heavy rainfall: Nov 29
- Very heavy rainfall: Nov 30
- Thunderstorms with lightning on Nov 27–28.
Fishermen and Coastal Warning
The IMD has issued strict advisories to fishermen across the Bay of Bengal region:
- Avoid venturing into south Andaman Sea, east-central Bay of Bengal, and south Bay of Bengal till conditions stabilize.
- Boats already at sea must return to the nearest coast immediately.
- High waves and rough seas pose significant risk as the system intensifies.
Preparedness Measures by States
State governments in southern India have started taking early precautionary steps:
Tamil Nadu
- SDRF teams kept on standby
- Control rooms activated in coastal districts
- Urban local bodies instructed to clear drains and stormwater channels
Kerala
- Fishermen alert issued
- District collectors authorised to impose restrictions in vulnerable areas
- Relief camps prepared in high-risk zones
Andaman & Nicobar
- Port operations on watch
- Tourists advised to avoid water activities
- Administration preparing for evacuation if needed
Andhra Pradesh
- Disaster management authorities instructed to monitor village-level alerts
- Fishing harbours put on warning
What Happens Next? IMD’s Projections
Meteorologists say the next 48 hours are critical:
- If the system intensifies rapidly, coastal Tamil Nadu and south Andhra Pradesh may face very heavy to extremely heavy rainfall.
- Cyclone Senyar could approach the south Tamil Nadu or north Sri Lanka coast by late week, though exact track predictions will be clearer by Tuesday.
- A slight shift northwards could bring the cyclone closer to the Chennai–Puducherry belt.
IMD has stated it will issue regular updates every six hours.
